MAKE’s Q3/2014 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update presents a consistent expectation of 7.2% growth on average per year from 2013 to 2023. In the US, new guidance from the IRS has shifted 1.3GW into 2015 from 2014 and 2016; incentive schemes and policy improvements in key markets such as India, France and Germany have also positively impacted near-term growth.
MAKE identifies several adjustments from its Q2/2014 outlook; a review of new capacity commissioned in the first half of 2014 has influenced a shift of some capacity into 2015 as development and policy activity further indicate a record year in 2015. Thus, MAKE has downgraded expectations for 2014 by 1.3% and upgraded the 2015 forecast by 3.3%, accounting for some capacity also being pulled in from 2016, as forecast in Q2/2014.
While an uptick in near-term grid-connections is expected, growth from 2016-2023 has been downgraded slightly due to changed policy signals in the UK. A lower than expected first CFD call for tender in the UK has led to a 2.3GW downgrade – impacting the offshore sector outlook.
The ten-year outlook for onshore markets in Europe is increased by 0.8%, as upgrades in Southern Europe (2.7%) and Northern Europe (5.3%) balance out a net downgrade in Eastern Europe (4%) due primarily to lower confidence in the Russia market following a disappointing auction in June.
MAKE’s forecast for China is maintained from Q2/2014. Despite minor downgrades in Central Asian markets, the reintroduction of the Accelerated Deprecation incentive in India yields a 0.2% upgrade in Asia Pacific (excl. China).
Each country in MAKE’s list of top-20 emerging markets is expected to more than double its installed capacity over the next 10 years, indicating tremendous potential but also risks. South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Chile will be the leading emerging markets, adding roughly 5GW, 4GW and 3.5GW respectively from 2014 to 2023.
Order inflow in Q2/2014 increased 24% YoY and 22% from Q1/2014, confirming build-up toward a record installation year in 2015. AMER accounted for 37% of firm order volume in Q2/2014 followed by APAC with 23%.
The Q3/2014 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update provides a 10-year outlook (2014-2023) for global, regional and country-level growth. The research includes a detailed market forecast update for more than 50 key and emerging markets for wind power. The forecast data includes a split of expected onshore and offshore development, and analysis of the latest order and pricing trends.