Europe’s commissioned offshore wind capacity will grow at an average rate of 3GW per year between 2017 and 2025 and represent a key driver of growth in Europe, according to MAKE.
The offshore market accounted for 21%, or 3GW, of all new grid-connected capacity in Europe in 2015, more than double the amount connected in 2014.
Europe’s total offshore wind capacity at the end of 2015 was little over 11GW, with 1.2GW expected to be grid-connected in 2016.
If MAKE’s projections prove correct, Europe should have around 39.2GW of commissioned offshore wind capacity by 2025.
The 2020 renewable energy targets have thus far acted as a core driver for European growth, according to MAKE.
However, the short-term outlook in Europe is also influenced by regulatory adjustments across the EU following national implementation of the EU Commission’s Guidelines on State aid for environmental protection and energy 2014-2020.
In the long term, the 2030 targets provide only EU-binding goals without country-specific obligations.
This is a barrier to long-term policy certainty that needs to be removed in order to enhance visibility on the post-2020 regulatory framework and facilitate new investments, MAKE said.
MAKE believes that the EU emissions trading system is critical to drive the transition from fossil fuels to renewable electricity from 2020 to 2030, assisted by LCOE reductions realized through progress in wind energy technology innovation.