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The global fleet of offshore wind installation vessels could support achieving up to 400 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, provided that additional vessels are ordered and deployed, alongside supportive market conditions, according to a scenario study by the Kuehne Climate Center. The study also shows that, looking globally, newbuild investments required to achieve this are primarily needed in markets outside China, which has a strong fleet serving its home market.
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The analysis indicates that the existing wind turbine installation vessel (WTIV) and heavy lift vessel (HLV) fleet, vessels already on order, and additional newbuilds assumed under the scenario could enable the installation of around 320 GW of new offshore wind capacity by the end of the decade , increasing the total global installed capacity to about 400 GW under aligned conditions.
The report emphasises that this represents a vessel capacity potential rather than a projection of actual deployment, with outcomes also dependent on broader supply chain readiness, market conditions, and political ambition.
The study concludes that ambitions to reach 500 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 were unlikely to be achievable due to fleet availability, investment lead times and broader market conditions that limited what installation logistics could realistically deliver within that timeframe.
“From the vessel fleets’ perspective—ignoring all other factors that determine the build-out of offshore wind—meeting the 2030 ambition of 500 GW offshore wind is out of reach”, the report says, offering two scenarios in which regions could still individually achieve 80 to 85 per cent of the 2030 ambition, which globally results in around 400 GW of installed fixed-bottom offshore wind capacity.
China’s offshore wind installation vessel fleet is assessed as being capable of achieving around 225 GW of installed capacity by 2030, primarily through improved coordination between the demand for, and supply of, turbine installation services. According to the study, this outcome would rely largely on optimising the use of existing vessels rather than on significant additional fleet investments.
Outside China, the report finds that the rest of the global offshore wind market, led mainly by European operators, would require sustained annual investments in new installation vessels in the range of EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 4 billion over the next three years to reach around 175 GW of installed capacity by 2030.
Without these investments, the study estimates that the non-Chinese fleet could at best support around 140 GW of installed offshore wind capacity by the end of the decade , reducing the global total achievable installations to about 365 GW.
The report also underlines that offshore wind installation logistics remain structurally divided into two largely separate markets. China’s domestically focused fleet primarily serves its home market, while internationally classed vessels, operated mainly by European companies, are deployed across projects in the rest of the world. This structural separation limits the extent to which vessel capacity can be shared across regions.
Growing wind turbine sizes are also one of the key factors considered in the study, according to which there is an increasing qualitative mismatch between wind turbine development and vessel capabilities , in terms of new vessels coming to market equipped to install next-generation, high-output turbines, when developers continue to opt for commercially ready and used models.
“In the past, there was only one way of mismatch, which was turbines growing faster than vessels. What we see now, especially for the [Rest of World] fleet, is that vessels already anticipate further turbine growth, and those coming out in 2025/2026 could install larger turbines than those they may install in the near future . In that sense, these vessels work under their actual capacities as long as larger turbines are not commercially available and developers continue to choose smaller ones to reduce early days risk”, Stefanie Sohm from Kuehne Climate Center, lead author of the report, explains.
The analysis further points to vessel deployment strategies as a key efficiency factor. While efficient use of vessels within individual projects is identified as important for cost control, the study finds that coordination of vessel allocation across projects and regions has so far received limited attention, despite its potential to unlock higher installation volumes.
The research, carried out with contributions from the consultancy Panticon, suggests that improved forecasting and multi-regional coordination of vessel deployment could enhance efficiency, reduce collective costs and accelerate offshore wind installations without proportional fleet expansion.
At the same time, the report emphasises that installation vessels represent only one element of the offshore wind supply chain. Port infrastructure, manufacturing capacity and broader market conditions are identified as additional critical factors, reinforcing that the 400 GW outcome reflects a best-case vessel-capacity scenario rather than a forecast of actual offshore wind deployment.
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about 6 months ago
The global fleet of offshore wind installation vessels could support achieving up to 400 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, provided that additional vessels are ordered and deployed, alongside supportive market conditions, according to a scenario study by the Kuehne Climate Center. The study also
